Charlie Ball, deputy director of research at the Higher Educations Careers Services Unit
(Engineers and IT workers are unlikely to be the unemployed superheroes of 2012. Image: KeystoneUSA-ZUMA/Rex Features)
I don't like futurology. I like to make statements backed up with
evidence, not speculation. Besides, if you make predictions, all that
happens is you get things wrong and people laugh at you.
These are my excuses. Because here's how the UK graduate jobs market
for scientists is looking for 2012. This piece is essentially a mixture
of literature review, trend analysis and sheer, downright gut feeling
based on experience. You can't do a rigorously evidenced piece about
the future - it would be violating causality, and the editors here
really don't like that. The piece is here to be picked at and disagreed
with - if you know better about your sector, pitch in. Information is
most useful when it's shared.
Anyway, hands up if you think this is going to be a light-hearted,
feel-good romp? Some mining engineers in the house, I see. Put your
hands down, chemists.
As we're all doubtless aware, the UK economy is not in the best
shape right now, and there's debate about whether we're already in
another downturn, whether we're about to be, or whether we're going to
bypass one, with constantly-evolving economic data cited in all
directions. What we do know is that the economy isn't great and doesn't
look likely to improve much in 2012. Internationally, there's ongoing
concern about the health of various European economies and the
consequences for the Euro, whilst there are rumblings of issues in the
Chinese economy. I'm not going to speculate about whether there's going
to be a Euro collapse and so on - I don't know, and nor does anyone
else, and obviously if something like that happens, the picture will
change significantly.
But how is all of this affecting science graduates? Well, last year
saw the jobs market start to improve for engineers, but tighten for
physical scientists and biologists, with a bit of a jump in
unemployment rates. This was also the case for doctoral graduates in
science, with fewer PhD holders entering much of the private economy,
with drops in employment in chemicals, the pharmaceuticals industry and
in basic R&D (apart from engineering). However, there were
increases in management consultancy, computing and digital consulting
and in education and public administration.
Much of these trends seem set to continue. The most recent advice from the Bank of England
suggests that engineering and IT might be looking up, and organisations
like the IT services provider the FDM Group are making optimistic
noises about graduate recruitment this year. On the other hand, the
pharmaceutical industry in the UK didn't enjoy a very bright festive
period and suffered badly as a result of the recession in the UK. The
new High Fliers report suggests that graduate recruitment into the industry has fallen by over 4 per cent since 2007.
The larger pharmaceutical organisations look unlikely to increase
employment over 2012. The same cannot necessarily be said for smaller
businesses (SMEs) and with an increased focus on these companies, they
may be an alternative to larger R&D organisations for scientists
looking for work.
Engineers, however, may have a happier time. This is an industry
that was hit particularly badly by the recession, with mechanical,
civil and chemical engineers all seeing the jobs market worsen
significantly. But the data coming back from employers suggests that
the engineering labour market is improving, particularly for
manufacturing, with even a suggestion of difficulties recruiting for
some specialist firms. Some of the news from the oil and gas, and
mining industries are also positive, and last year, geology graduates
willing to travel were amongst the highest graduate earners of all. The
messages from telecoms and utilities are also mixed, but currently
reasonably positive. So we're looking at a gradual recovery, but a jobs
market that is still nowhere near the strength it was before the
recession.
Meanwhile, the jobs
market in academia is also uncertain. Cuts in UK Government spending
will obviously have an effect, but at the same time, we're into the
long-anticipated period when many academics who got their positions at
times when the university system was expanding are reaching retirement,
so there may be more options around than some might fear. As always,
though, these opportunities will be fiercely contested.
Physical scientists may find that the job market related to their
field of study gets tougher and that they have to explore other
options, whether it be in a smaller business or another sector of the
economy.
But even if you have your heart set on a particular kind of job,
with even an average new doctoral graduate likely to have around 40
years of work ahead of them, you can always try something else before
tackling your chosen industry when you're in a better position to do so
- either because you have more and better experience or because the
market has improved. Because, after all, here's one prediction for 2012
that is definitely going to be correct - the majority of science
graduates will get jobs, the majority of those who get jobs will get
ones at graduate level, and you will almost all get good careers in the
end - even if they might not be in something you considered while you
were at university.
Happy (slightly belated) New Year.
How accurate do you think Char
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