A weak solar maximum might sound like a blessing but could leave us wide open in 2024
EVERY
11 years or so, the sun goes mad, flinging huge balls of plasma towards
the Earth. It has been 12 years since the last solar maximum and there
are signs that the sun is gearing up for another outburst.
We
should be worried, as the world has become increasingly vulnerable to
solar storms. So it may be a blessing that the upcoming maximum is
expected to be a feeble one (see "Earth in for bumpy ride as solar storms hit").
That
blessing, however, could be decidedly mixed. Whatever happens over the
next year or two, there will be another solar maximum in the early
2020s, another about 11 years later, and so on until... well, who
knows. One day a real monster will hit us and we need to be ready.
But
we don't seem to be good at preparing for solar storms. We have already
proved prone to complacency and short-termism during periods of calm.
Some electricity companies in the US have been installing transformers
that are more efficient than older ones, but also more vulnerable to
solar storms.
If
we sail through the next maximum unscathed, that complacency can only
deepen. By 2024 chances are we will be even more dependent on
vulnerable technology. Nobody wants a "solar Katrina" but a couple of
moderately damaging storms will probably act as a wake-up call,
reminding us that the threat is all too real.
It
would have other benefits too. The world is loath to forgive scientists
who predict a catastrophe that doesn't materialise. After the 2009 bird
flu pandemic that never was, scientists acting in good faith were
accused of scaremongering, setting back preparedness for a threat that
has not gone away. A solar storm no-show could deepen complacency even
further.
Last
but not least, a decent solar maximum could finally spur NASA to
replace its Advanced Composition Explorer probe, which floats between
the Earth and the sun and gives us our best estimate of the power of an
incoming storm. ACE is old and rickety and its sensors could be fried
by a big storm. We would then have time to replace it with a shiny new
one to help make sure we don't sleepwalk into disaster in 2024.
http://www.newscientist.com/
No comments:
Post a Comment